A new year has started and in the recent month three new papers have been published, which have my name in the author list. In all three cases my contributions were more in the sense of statistical assistance, so I will just briefly introduce the topics.
This paper predicts ocean surface waves on the seasonal scale. It uses enhanced prediction of the NAO with the sub-sampling algorithm to generate prediction skill for wave height in the North Atlantic. As the prediction enhances not only wind waves, but also the swell it is a consistent prediction enhancement for the total wave height.
Dobrynin, M.; Kleine, T.; Düsterhus, A.; Baehr, J: Skilful Seasonal Prediction of Ocean Surface Waves in the Atlantic Ocean, GRL, 46, 1731–1739
The second paper investigates the predictability of European summer climate by a physics-based sub-sampling. It uses for this a connection from tropical Atlantic SST anomalies over a wave train in the upper troposphere to the second mode of North Atlantic surface pressure. Unlike European winter’s, the second mode is as important as the first mode for European summer climate. As a consequence the predictability of surface temperature and other atmospheric variables over Europe are enhanced.
Neddermann, N.-C.; Müller, W. A.; Dobrynin, M.; Düsterhus, A.; Baehr, J. (2019): Seasonal predictability of European summer climate re-assessed, Climate Dynamics
Atlantic Inflow to the North Sea Modulated by the Subpolar Gyre in a Historical Simulation With MPI‐ESM
This study uses a global model to show that the strength of the subpolar gyre (SPG) has a profound influence on North Sea water properties. Up to now regional models showed that most of the modulation happens due to Atmospheric influence. The modulations by the SPG happen on a decadal scale and can be followed on their way from the Atlantic to the North Sea.
Koul V.; Schrum, C.; Düsterhus, A.; Baehr, J.: Atlantic Inflow to the North Sea Modulated by the Subpolar Gyre in a Historical Simulation With MPI‐ESM, JGR Oceans