The fourth day of the IMSC 2019 was the day when the heat wave finally hit Toulouse with full force. Around 40 deg C was what the temperature measurements told us and it felt a bit overwhelming. The morning started again with plenary sessions and talks about uncertainty separation and down-scaling. Afterwards followed the poster session in a tent outside, and it got warmer and warmer over time as the wind was not as strong as in the last days.
After lunch the parallel sessions for the day started and I chose the one on forecast evaluation. The first part was reserved for the development of new verification procedures and I had my own talk in this section. It went alright, I presented two new skill scores basing on the EMD and demonstrated it at different seasonal prediction applications. The second half of the session was on the application of verification procedures and showed many different fields.
With the end of the talks it was time for the social events. The choice was either a wine tasting on a ship or a walking tour through town. I chose the latter one and it was a challenge to always find shade to get not too warm in the sunshine. Tomorrow will be the last day and the weather will still be warm enough to be a challenge.
The fourth day of the EGU 2019 was the day of seasonal prediction. To be more exact the session was named subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) and it covered a wide range of topics within this field. It started in the morning with a session on mechanisms and ranged from large scale atmospheric patterns to ocean variables.
The second session focused on predictability and showed several examples of variables which are predictable from a few weeks to a few month in advance. In the final presentation session the topic switched to applications and showed some use of the prediction for the energy and agricultural sector.
In this section I have also given a talk on multi-model subsampling. It was not really my talk, as I was just taking over from someone who was not able to make it to the conference this year on short notice. Anyway, it went quite alright. The day ended with the posters of this session, which offered a good mix for all of the topics above. Tomorrow I will have my own poster in the final session of the conference.
Fourth day of the EGU this year and it was the day of my own presentation. But let’s start with the star of the day. The morning session I spend in a session on climate variability across different scales. They were interesting and quite variable in the topics, and as most sessions this year quite busy.
After lunch I had my talk, which was quite misplaced in the session. As there was this year no verification session available, I had to look out for a session, which had this field as a side topic. It was connected to the data centre session and so was myself the only one who had a statistical method as a main topic and the other talks were purely software related. Nevertheless, the talk went alright.
The final presentation session was for me then the medal talk of Tim Palmer, who gave a great overview on the development of probabilistic forecasts in the last century. The packed lecture hall got likewise a historical and a topical overview on these development, which led to the current ensemble systems. With the poster session at the end of the schedule the day ended. One day is left before the EGU 2018 will get to its end.
Today was dominated by the session of the project I am working for. It started with some presentation on the holocene, which incorporated very interesting inside on the sea level change during the past several thound years. The second session started with the great medal talk of Maureen Raymo. She had explained with several little funny anecdotes her career and gave a great overview on the connection between the changing chemical components of the ocean and the sea level and with it the ice sheets.
After a little change within the audiance, I gave my talk on the sea level highstand during the last interglacial. It went quite well and it was quite fun to have one of the larger rooms to give a presentation. Another talk from my project closed the session, which was quite a success. The afternoon I spend in a session on ensemble methods, which offered quite a nice overview on the developments in the mathematical science of combining models with observations.
The evening had an interesting poster session with a lot of nice talk to offer and closed the day on the conferences. Tomorrow will be the last day of the EGU and I will have a poster to present.