Three new papers out

A new year has started and in the recent month three new papers have been published, which have my name in the author list. In all three cases my contributions were more in the sense of statistical assistance, so I will just briefly introduce the topics.

Skilful Seasonal Prediction of Ocean Surface Waves in the Atlantic Ocean

This paper predicts ocean surface waves on the seasonal scale. It uses enhanced prediction of the NAO with the sub-sampling algorithm to generate prediction skill for wave height in the North Atlantic. As the prediction enhances not only wind waves, but also the swell it is a consistent prediction enhancement for the total wave height.

Dobrynin, M.; Kleine, T.; Düsterhus, A.; Baehr, J: Skilful Seasonal Prediction of Ocean Surface Waves in the Atlantic Ocean, GRL, 46, 1731–1739

Seasonal predictability of European summer climate re-assessed

The second paper investigates the predictability of European summer climate by a physics-based sub-sampling. It uses for this a connection from tropical Atlantic SST anomalies over a wave train in the upper troposphere to the second mode of North Atlantic surface pressure. Unlike European winter’s, the second mode is as important as the first mode for European summer climate. As a consequence the predictability of surface temperature and other atmospheric variables over Europe are enhanced.

Neddermann, N.-C.; Müller, W. A.; Dobrynin, M.; Düsterhus, A.; Baehr, J. (2019): Seasonal predictability of European summer climate re-assessed, Climate Dynamics

Atlantic Inflow to the North Sea Modulated by the Subpolar Gyre in a Historical Simulation With MPI‐ESM

This study uses a global model to show that the strength of the subpolar gyre (SPG) has a  profound influence on North Sea water  properties. Up to  now regional models showed that most of the modulation happens due to Atmospheric influence. The modulations by the SPG happen on a decadal scale and can be followed on their way from the Atlantic to the North Sea.

Koul V.; Schrum, C.; Düsterhus, A.; Baehr, J.: Atlantic Inflow to the North Sea Modulated by the Subpolar Gyre in a Historical Simulation With MPI‐ESM, JGR Oceans

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EGU 2017: Medal lectures

The second day of the conference was a quiet day for me, as no must see sessions were scheduled for me today. It started again with the North Atlantic session, which this time focussed more on the oscillations, like NAO. Afterwards, I visited a medal lecture on SAR. This topic is quite far away from my daily work, but such conferences are always a chance to see things you are usually not confronted with. Important for me was the statement that in times in which data can be generated in huge numbers, data management gets more and more important. Big data requires new ideas on workflows, might have to include cloud services and poses new questions on data availability.

After lunch I visited a palaeo session on the common era, which also addressed in many points the long-term variabilities of our climate system. In a last session another medal lecture was scheduled and again the southern ocean was the topic. This time it was the circular current and a good overview on the methods used to understand this important part of the global circulation was illustrated in this talk. A good thing about medal lectures is that you can see in a compact way a whole topic. Even when you now bits and pieces about it, it helps to get deeper into it to by getting it introduced by a real expert of the research field. The final stage of the day was then the traditional poster session. Tomorrow will be half time, and it will start the busy part of this week for me.