The new year has started and in the recent weeks two new papers with myself in the author list have been published. Both are covering a wide spectrum and my contribution was in both cases more something I would classify as statistical assistance. Therfore, I will keep my comments brief at this place and just quickly introduce the topics.
Speleothem evidence for MIS 5c and 5a sea level above modern level at Bermuda
This paper is about the sea-level height at Bermuda at roughy 70,000 years back. It is mainly a geological paper and focusses on the evidence from speleotherms, that indicate that sea-level was positive compared to today at that time. That is important, because the rest of the world has in many places lower than modern sea-level at that time. A plot in the later part of the paper shows, that the difference at different locations in the carribean can be up to 30-40m. Explained can this be with GIA modelling and the paper is therefore a good help to better calibrate those models.
Wainer, K. A. I.; Rowe, M. P.; Thomas, A. L.; Mason, A. J.; Williams, B.; Tamisiea, M. E.; Williams, F. H.; Düsterhus, A.; Henderson, G. M. (2017): Speleothem evidence for MIS 5c and 5a sea level above modern level at Bermuda, Earth and Planetary Science Letters, 457, 325-334
Hindcast skill for the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation at 26.5°N within two MPI-ESM decadal climate prediction systems
The second paper focusses on the hindcast skill of two decadal forecasting systems of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). It shows that both system have significant hindcast skill in predicting the AMOC for up to five years in advance, while an uninitialised model run has not. The time series for evaluationg the systems are still quite short, but the extensive statistics in the paper allows to transparently follow the argument, why the system do have this capability.
Müller V.; Pohlmann, H.; Düsterhus, A.; Matei, D.; Marotzke; J; Müller, W. A.; Zeller, M.; Baehr, J.: Hindcast skill for the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation at 26.5°N within two MPI-ESM decadal climate prediction systems, Climate Dynamics