International Conference on S2S2D

Last week NCAR in Boulder (Colorado) hosted the second edition of the International Conference on Subseasonal to Decadal prediction. It covered the climate prediction from a few weeks up to a few years and hosted with around 350 scientists a good representation of the community in this field. During most of the days the conferences was split into a subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) and a seasonal to decadal (S2D) session.

The International Conference on S2S2D poster

I personally visited only the S2D part, as my current work focuses on this topic. The first day looked into the mechanisms of predictability and the typical candidates, like ocean, soil moisture and stratosphere, were discussed. The second day shifted then more to the modelling of these phenomena. The weather services presented their new prediction systems and new approaches to modelling were discussed. As a third topic covered the handling of the predictions. It looked at calibration and other technique to make the prediction really useful. This lead to the fourth topic, which discussed the decision-making process basing on the prediction. Here, the applications were the main focus points and many different phenomena and their predictability were shown. Topic number five looked at the statistical verification. It presented new approaches to access the skill of the models. The final session of the S2D session looked at the frontiers of earth system prediction and therein especially at the handling  of carbon within the models. Afterwards in a combined session of both parts many different aspects on the future of research in this field were brought up. Among others the topics of temporal dependence of forecast skill and the so-called ‘signal to noise paradox’ lead to a lively discussion.

My personal contributions were threefold. I showed on a poster in the first session how the Summer NAO can be predicted using ensemble sub-sampling. In the second session I presented a poster on the view that sub-sampling can be viewed as a post processing procedure and can so explain why it works. The  talk in the fifth session then covered  the  2D categorical EMD score.

All in all it was a great conference, with  many interesting discussions and a great overview over this interesting field. Certainly many impulses will come from this and will give not only my own research a  new push.

ECOMS 2016: Three days in Exeter

Last week I attended the European Climate Observations, Modelling and Services (ECOMS) at the MetOffice in Exeter. The conference itself lasted three days and for me personally it was the first time to pay Exeter a visit. The event was the last meeting for three EU projects, which in the days before had meetings on their own. All three projects are involved around seasonal and decadal climate predictions and cover different aspects of it. The projects were NACLIM, concentrating on the physical mechanisms and observations, SPECS, focussing on the modelling, and EUPORIAS, looking for the establishing of climate services. As such the topics and the background of the attending scientists were quite diverse, leading to interesting talks and conversations.

MetOffice in Exeter

MetOffice in Exeter

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