Massive ensemble paper background: What can we say now on the LIG sea-level?

After the new paper is out it is a good time to think about the current status on the main question it covered, the sea-level during the LIG. Usually I do not want to generalise too much in this field, as there is currently a lot going on, many papers are in preparation or have just been published and the paper we have just published was originally handed in one and a half years ago. Nevertheless, some comments on the current status might be of interest.

So the main question the most papers on this topic cover is: How high was the global mean sea-level during the last interglacial. There were some estimates in the past, but when you ask most people who work with this topic they will answer more than six metre  higher than today. That is of course an estimate with some uncertainty attached to it and currently most expect that it will not have been much higher than about nine metres than today. There are several reasons for this estimate, but at least we can say that we are quite sure that it was at least higher than present. From my understanding, geologists are quite certain that at least for some regions this is true and even when the data is sparse, meaning the number of data points low, it is very likely that this was also the case for the global mean. Whether it is 5, 6 or 10 metre higher is a more complicate question. It will still need more evaluation until we can make more certain statements.

Another question on this topic are the start point, end point and duration of the high stand. This question is very complex, as it depends on definitions and the problem that in many places only the highest point of sea-level over the duration of the LIG can be measured. That makes it very complex to say something definitive especially on the starting point. As such, our paper did not really made a statement on this, as it just shows that data from boreholes and from corals are currently not stating the same answer.

The last question everybody asks is the variability of the sea-level during the LIG. Was it just one big up and down or were there several phases with a glaciation phase in the middle. Or where there even more phases than two? Hard questions. The most reliable statements say that there are at least two phases, while from my perspective our paper shows that it is currently hard to make any statement basing on the data we used. But also here, new data might give us the chance to make better statements.

So there are still many questions to answer in this field and I hope the future, on which I will write in my last post on this topic, will bring many more insights into this field.

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