Background to “Estimating the sea level highstand during the last interglacial: a probabilistic massive ensemble approach”

This post is about the new paper, which got out recently. The title of the paper is “Estimating the sea level highstand during the last interglacial: a probabilistic massive ensemble approach” and was published in Geophysical Journal International. It is an output from the iGlass project I have worked for until last year.

The paper addresses the sea-level evolution over the last interglacial. For this we use a GIA model, which is in model terminology a simple model, and compare it with the help of massive ensembles and a new data assimilation scheme to observations. Apart from introducing and demonstrating the methodology, this papers addresses many problems of this topic. It is designed to offer a different view on the LIG sea-level and on many complications we have, to determine it and its uncertainties.

This post is an introduction to some other background posts, which will be published here in the next couple of weeks. The topics I would like to write on are:

  1. Sea-level in the LIG: What are the problems?
  2. Massive ensembles: How to make use of simple models?
  3. Data assimilation with massive ensembles
  4. What can we say now on the LIG sea-level?
  5. What will the future bring?

With these topics I hope to bring in some personal views on this topic and explain some basic points of this very complex paper. It is not a paper, which has official head line numbers, as it is more a description on problems and introduction of new methodologies. For getting reliable numbers out, we have to rethink the problem, and this will certainly be done in the future.


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